Cattle Outlook
Beef imports exceeded exports during January for the first month since August 2010. Beef exports during January were the lowest of any month since April 2010. January exports were down 8 million pounds (lb.) (4.4%) compared to a year ago, largely because Hong Kong purchased 7 million lb. less U.S. beef than in January 2011. January beef imports were up 43 million lb. (28.8%) compared to a year ago and the highest since June 2011.In total, 8.6% of January beef production was exported. Beef imports equaled 9.0% of January production.
January domestic retail beef demand was up 8.1% compared to a year earlier; but export demand for U.S. beef was down 1.9%. Packer demand in January for fed cattle was up 3.8% compared to January 2011.
Fed-cattle prices were steady this week with moderate sales volume. Through Thursday, March 15, the five-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live-weight basis was $126.34 per hundredweight (cwt.), down 43¢ from the week prior, but up $12.05 per cwt. from the same week last year. Steer prices on a dressed basis averaged $202.23 per cwt. for the week ending March 16, up 41¢ from the week prior and up $17.45 from a year ago.
Beef cutout value was sharply lower for the week. On Friday morning, March 16, the Choice boxed beef carcass cutout value was $189.92 per cwt., down $5.90 from the week prior. The Select carcass cutout was down $5.77 from the previous Friday to $187.94 per carcass cwt. The Choice-Select price spread is only $1.98 per cwt. A year ago, steer dressed prices were $2 per cwt. under the Choice cutout value. Dressed prices are $12 per cwt. above the Choice cutout value.
This week's cattle slaughter totaled 619,000 head, down 1.9% from the week before, but the same as a year ago. The average dressed weight for slaughter steers for the week ending on March 3 was 850 lb., down 4 lb. from the week before, but up 21 lb. from a year earlier. Weights have been heavier than weights a year ago for eight straight weeks. Year-to-date beef production is down 3.7%.
Feeder-cattle prices the week ending March 16 were generally steady to weak with more auctions lower than higher. Oklahoma City prices were mostly steady with the ranges for medium and large-frame #1 steers:
- 400-450 lb., $208-$217 per cwt.;
- 450-500 lb., $204-$210.50 per cwt.;
- 500-550 lb., $177.75-$204 per cwt.;
- 550-600 lb., $179-$196.50 per cwt.;
- 600-650 lb., $167-$182.75 per cwt.;
- 650-700 lb., $161.50-$171 per cwt.;
- 700-750 lb., $155-$166 per cwt.;
- 750-800 lb., $149.25-$164.35 per cwt.;
- 800-900 lb., $140-$154.75 per cwt.; and
- 900-1,000 lb., $133.50-$142 per cwt.
The April live-cattle futures contract settled at $125.30 per cwt. March 16, down 72¢ compared to last Friday. The June contract closed at $122.70 per cwt., down 90¢ for the week. August fed cattle settled at $124.52 and October at $129.87 per cwt.
March feeder cattle futures lost 52¢ the week ending March 16 to settle at $153.40 per cwt. The April contract ended the week at $154.30 per cwt., down $1.55 from the previous Friday.
