Cattle Outlook
Ag economists offer June 14 outlook.
USDA has raised its forecast of 2013 beef production to 25.437 billion pounds (lb.), up 1.3% from its May forecast, but down 1.8% from the 2012 actual. They are predicting 2014 beef production will be down 5.2% from 2013. The midpoint of their price forecast range for slaughter steers on a liveweight basis is $127.50 per hundredweight (cwt.) for 2013 and $132 per cwt. in 2014.
USDA’s June crop update lowered forecast corn yield by 1.5 bushels (bu.) per acre to 156.5 and raised the expected seasonal average price by 10¢ per bu. The midpoints of their price range are $4.80 for corn and $10.75 for soybeans during the upcoming marketing year.
As of June 9, 63% of corn acres were rated in good or excellent condition, the same as the week before, but down from 66% a year ago. 24% of U.S. pastures were rated in poor or very poor condition on June 9, down from 27% a year ago.
During the first 22 weeks of 2013, beef cow slaughter was up 3.7% and dairy cow slaughter was up 3.4% compared to a year ago. During this same period, steer slaughter was down 0.9% and heifer slaughter was down 4.1%.
Fed-cattle prices were mixed this week on continued light volume. Through Thursday, the five-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a liveweight basis was $124.21 per cwt., up 81¢ from last week and up $4.73 from the same week last year. Steer prices on a dressed basis averaged $194.31 per cwt. this week, down $1.49 from a week ago, but up $2.99 from a year ago.
This morning, the boxed beef cutout value for Choice carcasses was $200.15 per cwt., down $1.79 from the previous Friday, but up $1.57 from a year ago. The Select carcass cutout is at $183.55 per cwt., down 46¢ for the week. The Choice-Select price spread is $16.60 per cwt.
This week’s cattle slaughter totaled 644,000 head, the same as last week and 1.7% from a year ago. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on June 1 was 850 pounds (lb.), up 4 lb. from the week before and the same as a year ago. This was the first week since Jan. 7, 2012, that steer weights weren’t above the year-earlier level.
Oklahoma City feeder cattle auction prices this week were steady to $3 higher with prices per cwt. for medium and large frame #1 steers:
- 400-450 lb., $162
- 450-500 lb., $156-$168
- 500-550 lb., $157-$171.25
- 550-600 lb., $149.50-$161.10
- 600-650 lb., $139-$154
- 650-700 lb., $137.50-$145.50
- 700-750 lb., $128-$138.50
- 750-800 lb., $131.75-$138.50
- 800-900 lb., $123-$137.75
- 900-1,000 lb., $118.25-$125.50
Editor's Note: Ron Plain and Scott Brown are ag economists with the University of Missouri, which provided this article.