Creighton University’s Art Douglas said it is “very rare” that El Niño events should occur so nearly back-to-back, noting that it hasn’t happened in 20 years.
CattleFax Presents Weather Outlook
Creighton University’s Art Douglas predicts return of El Niño and shares what that means to cattle forecast.
“Guess what? We have a brand new El Niño developing,” announced meteorologist Art Douglas during the 2017 Cattle Industry Convention, in Nashville, Tenn. The Creighton University professor emeritus shared his weather forecast during the Convention’s CattleFax Outlook Seminar, explaining that it is unusual for a second El Niño pattern to occur so close on the heels of the previous one.
El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures south of the equator, as opposed to La Niña, which is associated with colder water temperatures. These weather phenomena typically impact weather conditions around the world, influencing both temperature and precipitation.
Douglas called it “very rare” that El Niño events should occur so nearly back-to-back, noting that it hasn’t happened in 20 years. Douglas explained, however, that the 2014-2016 El Niño pattern ended rather abruptly last April, giving way to weak La Niña conditions lasting into the fall. Now, Pacific waters near the equator are warming, signaling the return of El Niño.
“There has been tremendous change in water temperatures, and it has happened rather rapidly,” added Douglas. “I look for general warming going forward into summer. Prediction models suggest steady warming for the next six months.”
What does that mean weather-wise? According to Douglas, a ramping up of El Niño portends drought in South America, especially Brazil, and also in Australia. The expectation is for hot, dry weather that will challenge crop production and hinder grazing. As is typical, however, El Niño should deliver agriculture-friendly weather conditions to much of the United States.
Douglas called the outlook for spring and early summer most promising for areas east of the Rocky Mountains. For the Central Plains and western Corn Belt, he predicted temperatures and precipitation favorable to planting and a good start to the growing season. Above-normal precipitation should be beneficial to growing conditions throughout the winter wheat-grazing area and ranges of the Plains. Increased precipitation should bring relief to drought conditions in the Southeast.
Not all parts of the United States will be treated as kindly by the return of El Niño.
Douglas said the monsoon season of the Southwest could have a weak start. The recent rainfall pattern in the West will likely transition to a drier pattern for the coming months, with temperatures heating up during summer. The greatest potential for drought exists in the Pacific Northwest.
Editor’s Note: Field Editor Troy Smith is a freelance writer and cattleman from Sargent, Neb. This article was written as part of Angus Media’s coverage of the 2017 Cattle Industry Convention. For further coverage, watch future issues of the Angus Beef Bulletin and visit www.angus.media.