MARKETING...
Blach: ‘2018 Should be a Profitable Year’
CattleFax CEO Randy Blach shares positive outlook, but encourages risk management.
CattleFax CEO Randy Blach provided a big-picture view of the cattle industry market outlook for those attending the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show in Phoenix, Ariz., Jan. 31-Feb. 2. Of the beef industry’s current status, Blach reported, “2017 was the second best in history [for profitability]. Every sector made money through the chain. 2018 won’t be as good, but it still should be a profitable year in total.”
Cow-calf profits have averaged $165 per head from 1998 to 2018, Blach noted, sharing historical data. “If we can continue to grow demand domestically and globally, we’ll be in good shape.” Read more.
Cattle Analyst Positive for 2018
CattleFax analyst Kevin Good expects herd expansion to end, harvest weights to increase and beef production to be up.
“We’ve got a situation where you’ve got a stock market that’s on fire. That’s very supportive to high-end steak houses in particular,” said Kevin Good, senior analyst Feb. 1 during the CattleFax 2018 U.S. & Global Protein & Grain Outlook seminar at the Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show, hosted in Phoenix, Ariz. (Notably, the outlook was presented prior to the stock market’s dip a few days later.)
“You’ve also got a consumer-comfort index that’s as high as it’s been since the start of the century,” he continued.
A good stock market and high consumer-comfort index are good for cattle producers, he said. Consumers have more dollars to spend. Read more.
Plenty of Feedlot Cattle to Start 2018
The heifer-to-steer ratio in feedlots is becoming more typical of the long-term average; a sign that expansion is slowing.
The Jan. 1, 2018, inventory of cattle in feedlots was 11.49 million head, 108.3% of year-earlier levels. This is an increase of 884,000 head compared to Jan. 1, 2017, and is the largest January on-feed total since 2012. For the 12 months of 2017, feedlot placements totaled 23.5 million head, up 1.91 million head (an 8.8% increase) from 2016. Total 2017 marketings increased 1.03 million head year over year, up 4.9%. Read more.
USDA Launches MARS, Delivering
Faster Market Data to Ag Producers
New data platform provides analysts one-stop, instant access to up-to-date market prices.
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Jan. 31 announced the launch of a new electronic data platform to deliver market price information to the commodities industry. The new web-based platform, Market Analysis and Reporting Services (MARS), uses state-of-the-art technology to present detailed data sets in a more customer-focused way to better support competitive markets for producers and help stabilize food prices for American families. Read more.
Ginette Gottswiller
The Source
You don’t need to play Go Fish when comparing bulls.
Ever play Go Fish?
It is a pretty simple card game and doesn’t take long to figure out. You just need four of a kind and you’ve got some points on the board.
Trying to compare different bull breeds doesn’t take long to figure out either, but first you need to be using the same deck of cards. Is a heart the same as a diamond just because they are red?
How do you compare different bull breeds when using expected progeny differences (EPDs)?
One of the best tools to use is the U.S. Meat Animal Research (USMARC) across-breed EPD table that was recently updated. Read more.
Texas A&M AgriLife, Colorado State
Team Up for Beef Export Project
University researchers developing industry best practices.
Texas A&M AgriLife and Colorado State University (CSU) researchers are teaming up to evaluate production practice risks to beef trade, develop educational materials and programs to assist producers with meeting requirements for exporting to China, and helping the U.S. beef industry capitalize on future export trade revenue.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has awarded Texas A&M AgriLife Research and CSU $750,000 to develop the program.
“One purpose of this joint project is to develop and disseminate best practices to help U.S. beef industry members meet the requirements for marketing beef to Chinese markets,” said Russell Cross, professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Research scientist in the department of animal science at Texas A&M University in College Station. Read more.
Trade Shuffle Poses Risk for U.S. Beef Exports
Four of five top destinations for U.S. beef are at risk of trade disruption.
While the U.S. beef industry is well-positioned to capitalize on a growing global middle class and an improving economy, trade uncertainty could hamper the United States’ ability to capture market share in the coming years, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division.
The U.S. beef herd is expanding, bolstered by low input costs, and so is the demand for beef around the world. However, approximately 80% of beef exports are sold to countries that could be affected by ongoing trade pact negotiations. Trade deals including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) are either being renegotiated or the United States has dropped out of the agreement altogether. Read more.
Beef Checkoff Scorecard
Beef Checkoff Update Session highlights support; program efforts continue to gain traction.
The majority of beef producers continue to be supportive of the National Beef Checkoff Program, according to findings of a recent survey. Results of survey data collected from cattle owners between Dec. 20, 2017, and Jan. 12, 2018, revealed 74% of those surveyed continue to approve of the National Beef Checkoff Program. This is a 5% increase from survey data collected a year ago.
Findings were shared during a Checkoff Update session convened in conjunction with the 2018 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show hosted in Phoenix, Ariz., Jan. 31-Feb. 2. Read more.
Angus Calendar
To view the Angus Calendar, a comprehensive list of Angus sales, click here.