In The Cattle Markets
Fed-steer marketings ramp up seasonally.
Steer slaughter has begun to ramp up, seasonally, during the last month. Slaughter is up about 9% from mid-March to mid-April. The almost 30,000-head-per-week increase is relatively close to the increase in slaughter seen during the last five years, on average, and last year.
One of the interesting notes in the cattle market during last year has been the relatively low level of steer slaughter. While the cow herd and the calf crop have continued to grow, steer slaughter during the last 52 weeks is 1.5% below the previous 52 weeks. So far this year, steer slaughter is about 2.7% below a year ago. Over time, steer slaughter should roughly match the growth in the calf crop. Unlike heifers, there’s not much else to do with a steer.
One of the interesting notes in the cattle market this last year has been the relatively low level of steer slaughter.
Steer dressed weights normally decline until late May to early June. Weights this year have followed that seasonal pattern, but have been below last year’s weights until the last couple of weeks. Weights averaged 857 pounds (lb.) for the last reported week, about same as last year. The cattle-on-feed report (COF) has indicated more cattle on feed than a year ago and extremely large numbers on feed longer than 120 days. With some good weather, it’s likely weights will outpace last year’s level, adding to beef production. The quarterly COF report did indicate fewer steers on feed on April 1 than a year ago. However, steer slaughter ramping up seasonally and heavier weights do imply growing beef production into the summer.
Increases in beef production have come from heifer and cow slaughter. Fed-heifer slaughter is 11% higher than a year ago during the last four weeks, and 9% higher for this year. Driven by the financial wreck in the dairy industry, dairy cow slaughter has been the highest since the dairy-herd-buyout days of the 1980s, at more than 70,000 head per week in March. Dairy cow slaughter has finally resulted in milk production falling below a year ago, providing some hope for higher milk prices.
During the next few weeks watch for increasing steer slaughter and increasing steer and heifer dressed weights. Reduced dairy cow slaughter and higher cow-beef cutout values may provide some hope for higher cull-cow prices in coming weeks.
Editor’s note: David Anderson is a professor and Extension economist for Texas AgriLife Extension.
