Corn Crop Questions
Affect Feedgrain Outlook
Questions about latest U.S. corn crop may persist for months to come.
In typical times, feedgrain producers and traders would have a good idea by now of how the previous year's corn production turned out. But, the past year has been anything but typical.
"Because of these changes in
demand factors, corn's projected 2009/2010 U.S. ending stocks fell by 45
million bushels
to
1.179 billion."
— Dan O'Brien "Given winter conditions since late December, combined with high soil moisture levels in the central, northern and northwestern Corn Belt, it is unlikely that much corn harvest progress will have occurred in time for the March 31 USDA stocks report," said Dan O'Brien, Kansas State University (K-State) agricultural economist. "Because of the unusually fierce winter weather that kept some farmers from harvesting, the final tally on the 2009/2010 corn crop may not be certain until the June 30 grain stocks report. If that's the case, it could contribute to greater volatility than usual in the U.S. corn market this spring and summer."
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data released Jan. 12 estimated that U.S. corn production in 2009 totaled a record-large 13.2 billion bushels (bu.) — 1% above the previous record of 13 billion bu. set in 2007, and 9% higher than 2008's harvest. Corn yields reached an all-time high in 2009 at 165.2 bu. per acre. Planted area was 86.5 million acres and the second highest since 1949, behind 2007's 93.5 million acres.
Yet, there is uncertainty about the final size of the 2009 corn crop because USDA estimated the U.S. corn harvest was 95% complete as of Dec. 20, said O'Brien, who is the K-State Research and Extension economist based in Colby, Kan. If 5% of the U.S. crop is still unharvested, that would amount to approximately 3.98 million acres. In turn, with the year's average U.S. yield of 165.2 bu. per acre, this could amount to 657.5 million bu. of the 2009 crop still unharvested in 2010.
Some of the questions that persist, he said, include:
a) the possible impact of low corn test weights on feedgrain usage;
b) the quality deterioration of some corn supplies currently in storage;
c) the potential for production losses on as much as 500 million to 650 million bu. of the 2009 crop corn that still is unharvested; and
d) possible corn crop abandonment this spring due to wet soils and the need for farmers to begin fieldwork in preparation for planting the 2010 corn crop.
In its Feb. 9 "World Agricultural Supply-Demand Estimates" report, USDA raised its projection of U.S. corn usage for ethanol production by 100 million bu., putting it at 4.3 billion bu. for the 2009/2010 corn marketing year (Sept. 1, 2009, to Aug. 31, 2010). O'Brien explained that lower feedgrain input costs and supportive ethanol and distillers' grains prices have helped to improve profitability in the U.S. grain ethanol industry in 2009/2010, thus leading to higher corn usage in ethanol production.
The Feb. 9 report projected non-ethanol food, seed and industrial corn usage in 2009/2010 would dip 5 million bu. to 1.265 billion, he said. Based on a slower-than-expected pace of 2009/2010 U.S. corn exports, USDA also lowered its 2009/2010 corn export projection by 50 million bu. to a total 2.0 billion.
"Because of these changes in demand factors, corn's projected 2009/2010 U.S. ending stocks fell by 45 million bushels to 1.179 billion," O'Brien said. "When considered together with a projected total use of 13.115 billion bushels in 2009/2010, these ending stocks levels equal 13.1% ending-stocks-to-use. That's down from 13.5% in the January 12 USDA report.
"USDA narrowed the projected range of U.S. average corn prices for the 2009/2010 marketing year by 5¢ on each end, putting the range at $3.45 to $3.95 per bushel," the ag economist noted.
"If the March or June grain stocks report reduces the size of the 2009 U.S. corn crop by 200, 400 or 600 million bushels due to late harvest, in-field crop losses or abandonment or storage quality problems, then U.S. corn ending stocks projections for the marketing year are likely to be reduced by similar amounts," O'Brien said.
With no reduction in total U.S. corn usage, a 200-million-bu. reduction in projected 2009 corn production would lower the 2009/2010 U.S. ending stocks figure from 1.719 billion to 1.519 billion bu. It would lower ending-stocks-to-use projections to 11.6%, he said.
Similarly, a 400-million-bu. reduction would lower 2009/2010 ending stocks to 1.319 billion bu. and a 10.0% stocks-to-use level. A 600-million-bu. reduction would lower 2009/2010 ending stocks to 1.119 billion bu. and an 8.5% stocks-to-use level.
"In the event of such sizable reductions, it is likely that new crop CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) December 2010 corn futures prices would be positively affected in the late spring to summer months," O'Brien said. "Sizable reductions could also mean that the U.S. feedgrain market would be all that much more sensitive and volatile in response to either wet soil-induced planting delays in spring and/or weather threats to 2010's feedgrain production in the summer."
More marketing information is available on the K-State Extension agricultural economics web site, http://www.agmanager.info/.
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