Tim Petry
In the Cattle Markets
Both U.S. and Canadian cattle numbers decline.
On Aug. 22 the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) released the semi-annual United States and Canadian Cattle report, which reported July 1 cattle numbers by class for each country along with a combined number. The report can be accessed at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/
USCC/USCC-08-22-2011.pdf. It was not a surprise that cattle inventories in both countries continue to decline, because cow numbers in both countries have been declining for several years.
Total cattle and calves in the United States were reported at 100 million head on July 1, a decline of 1% from 2010. Canadian cattle and calves were at 13.87 million, a decline of 0.75%.
Last fall I had the opportunity to speak at several Southeastern Manitoba cattle producer meetings. Much the same as in the United States, Canadian feeder calf and cow prices had increased when compared to the past couple years. Producers were wondering whether herd expansion would take place in the United States and/or Canada. Several Manitoba producers expressed an interest in expanding their beef cow herds, but they were also apprehensive given higher costs of production and the volatility in cattle and feed prices.
On July 1, beef cow numbers in the United States were reported at 31.4 million head, compared to 4.2 million in Canada. Both countries experienced beef cow herd declines in the past year, with U.S. numbers down about 1.1% and Canadian numbers down 2.1%. Since 2006, beef cow numbers have declined about 5.6% in the United States compared to a decline of 18.6% in Canada; or a combined decline in the U.S./Canadian beef cow herd of 7.3%.
Beef cows declined in the United States in 2003, 2004 and 2005, while they increased during that same time in Canada. The main reason for the increase was that Canada was dealing with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-related market issues and the value of cows was so low that they were not sold and were retained in beef herds. At the same time several beef-cow-producing regions in the United States were experiencing severe drought conditions and beef herd liquidation.
A contrast in the 2011 numbers was that heifers kept for beef cow replacement were down almost 5% in the United States compared to an increase of almost 7% in Canada. The increase in Canada is not too surprising given that there is also interest in beef herd rebuilding in the Northern Plains of the United States where pasture and range conditions are very good.
More than 80% of Canada's beef cows reside across the border from the Northern Plains in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Of course, the Southern Plains and Southeastern United States remain very dry, and beef herd liquidation is occurring there. So, beef cow herd rebuilding in the United States will be delayed at least another year, while an increase in Canada's beef herd could occur next year.
