In The Cattle Markets
Cull-cow prices surge.
Cull-cow prices have surged in recent weeks, along with calf and feeder prices. Southern Plains auction prices for 85%-90% lean cows jumped from $85 per hundredweight (cwt.) to $105 per cwt. during the last two weeks of February. National average cutter-quality cows hovered around $100 per cwt.
Cull-cow prices tend to increase seasonally until about May-June. Higher prices are normally supported by seasonally declining cow slaughter into early summer and grilling season demand for ground beef. Dairy cow slaughter remains well below a year ago, even with struggling milk prices. Dairy culling tends to decline to seasonal lows mid-year. Weekly beef cow slaughter has remained below a year ago.
The fact fewer cows are available is certainly boosting live prices. Tighter supplies of cow beef are boosting the meat market. Since the first of the year, cow beef production has been about 14% lower than the same period last year. Heavier weights are boosting pounds of production, partially offsetting fewer animals slaughtered.
The boxed cow beef cutout hit $240 per cwt. at the end of February. That’s up from about $205 per cwt. at the beginning of the year, and $32 per cwt. higher than the same week in 2023. Wholesale 90% boneless beef hit $305 per cwt. at the end of February, $47 per cwt. higher than last year. The increase in 90% lean price is in sharp contrast to the 50% lean price, which is about 27% lower than last year. Beef imports, which are largely lean beef trimmings, have exceeded year-ago levels since April 2023, boosting lean beef supplies.
Cow prices are likely to continue to increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Beef and dairy cow weekly slaughter should remain below a year ago, keeping supplies tight. The calendar moving toward spring and the grilling season’s start should boost prices further.
A note on the Texas wildfires
By now, most have seen the news about the wildfires in the Texas Panhandle. No estimates of total damages are available yet. While a large portion of Texas cattle are in the Panhandle region, most of those are in feedlots and dairies, which have not had the cattle losses experienced by those grazing range. The effect is on rangeland beef cattle. Losses are likely to be large and will include ranch infrastructure such as fences, lost grazing while rangelands recover, and cows and calves lost, especially given this time of year. After several years of drought, low cattle prices, and higher costs, losses from the fires will be especially damaging because of today’s record-high prices and the lost opportunity to make up financially for the last few years.
Editor’s note: David Anderson is a professor and extension economist for the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service and contributor to “In The Cattle Markets” published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center website at www.lmic.info, which provided this article.
