In the Cattle Markets
What about trade?
Friday, Feb. 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with U.S. President Donald Trump on several issues, including potentially laying the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement. With the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a bilateral agreement with Japan is important to the U.S. cattle industry.
U.S. beef exports are expected to grow 5.6% in 2017, and the United States is expected to retain the position of fourth-largest exporter in the world, behind Brazil, India and Australia. In 2016, almost 26% of total U.S. exports went to Japan, 18% to South Korea, 15% to Mexico and 12% to Canada. Uncertainty regarding trade policy exposes the beef and cattle industry to less-favorable trade policies and, potentially, a loss of market share in some of these most profitable markets.
The United States gained market share in Japan, South Korea and Mexico in 2016, partially due to the lower exports from Australia. U.S. exports to Japan were valued at almost $1.5 billion, while exports to South Korea and Mexico were valued at $1 billion and $790 million, respectively.
Total beef and hide exports added almost $240 of value to the finished animal in 2016; while almost $96 of that value came from beef exports to only Japan, Mexico and Canada. I mention these three countries not only because they are where a large percentage of U.S. beef exports go, but also because these three countries will be affected directly by changes in trade policy.
The United States faces a 38.5% tariff on fresh and frozen beef going into Japan, as compared to the 9% tariff that Australia faces. The cattle industry needs to be concerned about whether that market share can be maintained once Australia’s beef herd has increased. With the withdrawal of the United States from the TPP, a bilateral agreement with Japan would help to secure a critical market for U.S. beef and increase overall beef demand. Any agreement to lower the tariff the United States faces on beef going into Japan will benefit cattle producers in the long run.
Renegotiation of the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will expose the U.S. cattle industry to uncertainty in two of our major beef export markets, Mexico and Canada. Let’s face it, recent conversations with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto have not necessarily built good will. Pena Nieto has sworn to walk away from NAFTA rather than accept a new deal that is worse than the current one. That situation would not benefit U.S. cattle producers.
Editor’s Note: Brenda Boetel is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls and a contributer to the Livestock Marketing Information Center, which provided this article. Find more at lmic.org.