As producers look to gauge the direction of markets and the cattle cycle in the coming years, one key figure in the recent USDA Cattle Inventory report was the tight supply of beef replacement heifers.

Beef replacements were reported at 4.86 million head to begin 2024, down 1.4% or 71,000 from last year. This was the lowest replacement inventory since 1950. The USDA inventory report also included a revision lower to the 2023 replacement heifer inventory, a revision that makes sense in light of drought conditions.

Digging deeper, the subset of beef replacements that are “expected to calve” in 2024 (i.e., bred heifers), composed 59,000 of the 71,000-head decline in replacements, suggesting few new additions to the calf crop in 2024 or to the beef cow herd in 2025.

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Despite bred heifers composing the bulk of the decline, the percentage of open heifers remains historically low to begin 2024. There is always potential for spring-born non-replacement heifers to be diverted back to the replacement program and exposed to a bull in the months ahead. That activity will be heavily influenced by moisture conditions and grazing prospects. However, the report suggests the supply of bred heifers in fall/winter 2024 will, nonetheless, remain tight.

The 70+ year low in replacement heifer inventories confirms that a rebuild of the U.S. beef cow herd is at least a couple years down the road, and likely to be more measured when it does occur. CattleFax anticipates price signals will result in more heifers retained from the 2024 calf crop, increasing beef replacements to begin 2025, but the extent will largely depend on Mother Nature.

Editor’s note: Patrick Linnell is director of cattle market research for CattleFax, which first published the article online Feb. 9 in its member-only section. The Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA is paying to reprint the article for our audience. To inquire about a membership to CattleFax, visit https://www.cattlefax.com/#!/membership.