USDA Report, Survey Data
Peg Record Corn Crop
The highly anticipated August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Aug. 12 by the USDA. This first report of the year to incorporate farmer survey and field-plot measurements to projected yield and production potential indicates a record crop.
“Up to this point, USDA has been using a statistical model for corn that predicts yield based on planting date, rainfall and temperature during the growing season,” said Todd Davis, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist. “The August report, through the rest of the year, will incorporate farm production information in the supply and demand estimates.”
August’s WASDE report projected the 2013 corn crop at 13.763 billion bushels (bu.), which would be a record crop, if realized, and a 2.98 billion bu. increase from 2012’s drought-stricken crop. The report estimates the 2013 corn yield at 154.4 bu. per acre, a reflection of the late planting season and cool, dry weather in the western Corn Belt, according to Davis.
The USDA report predicts 2013-2014 corn ending stocks to drastically increase from 719 million bu. for 2012-2013 to 1,837 million bu., elevating the stocks-to-use ratio from 6.4% to 14.5%.
“This means that the U.S. corn market is likely to go from a 23-day supply to a 52-day supply of corn. This increase in stocks will cause prices to decline from a marketing-average price of $6.95 per bu. for 2012-2013 to a projected $4.90 per bu. in 2013-2014,” said Davis.
Soybean report
The 2013 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 42.6 bu. per acre, up 3 bu. per acre from the 2012 yield. The soybean crop is estimated at 3.225 billion bu., up 240 million bu. from 2012, but 104 million less than the production record set in 2009.
The 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks are also expected to increase, though not as sharply as corn, from 125 million bu. in 2012-2013 to 220 million bu. in 2013-2014. In turn, the stocks-to-use ratio also will see an increase from a threadbare 4% for 2012-2013 to 6.9% for 2013-2014. The projected marketing-year average prices are expected to decline from $14.40 per bu. for 2012-2013 to $11.35 per bushel for 2013-2014.
“Due to the late planting season for both corn and soybeans, especially in the western Corn Belt, farmers should expect future reports to provide more accurate estimates that may differ significantly from Monday’s estimate,” said Davis. “While the 2013 corn and soybean crops do not look excellent everywhere, the corn and soybean markets are anticipating much larger crops, which will lead to lower prices and tighter profitability margins for 2014.”
Editor’s Note: This release is from the AFBF.